Off-Season Primer: Part One
The Panthers 2019 came to a merciful end with their 42-10 loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 17. A season plagued with injuries to key players on both sides of the ball led to Carolina’s second straight sub .500 year. A two year run which saw the departures of longtime Head Coach Ron Rivera and team cornerstones Ryan Kalil, Julius Peppers, Thomas Davis, and Luke Kuechly. They’re likely to be followed by Greg Olsen and franchise QB Cam Newton in what appears to be the beginning of a new era in Panthers football. In our two part off-season primer we’ll take a look at the current state of the Panthers and the stories that will dominate the run up to the 2020 season.
Offense
QB
Cam Newton, 2011 #1 overall pick and 2015 league MVP, may have already played his last down in a Panthers uniform (more on that in part two), that leaves 3rd year QB Kyle Allen and 2019 3rd round pick Will Grier as the only current options. So there’s that.
Allen had a fairy tale start to his career, winning his first 5 starts while completing 65% of his passes with 9 TDs and 0 INTs. As we know those numbers don’t tell the full story but not bad for an undrafted backup, then the wheels came off. Over the next 8 games Allen’s percentage dropped to 60% and he threw just 10 TDs vs 15 INTs while absorbing 35 sacks during a 1-7 run that dispelled all notions of Allen being a long term answer at the QB position.
To his credit Will Grier did not play with Panthers’ fans’ emotions, looking outclassed from the jump. Grier finished the season completing 53% of his passes with 0 TDs, 4 INTs and sizable regret from Panthers fans over drafting him at a point where they could helped fill another need on a team that has plenty.
Moving forward the answer at QB will have to come from an unusually deep free agent crop or from the draft, either this year or next.
Skill Positions
Christian McCaffrey set a record for running back receptions, joined the exclusive 1000 + 1000 yard club, scored 19 TDs and made first team all pro not once, but twice. The only question at running back for the Panthers is will new OC Joe Brady finally give him a break? Reggie Bonnafon proved worthy of more snaps (7.8 yards per touch) and 5th round pick Jordan Scarlett never really got a chance after landing on IR midseason. November addition Mike Davis was never active and would seem a likely cap casualty in 2020.
At WR the Panthers return the versatile duo of DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel. Moore topped his rookie year in catches, yards and targets, enjoying a mini breakout as the leader of Carolina’s anemic passing attack. Samuel also posted career bests while continuing to be stifled by a lack of competent QB play. Allen and Grier were consistently unable to find Samuel despite the speedster providing ample opportunities for big plays down the field. Greg Olsen’s likely exit leaves unproven but intriguing third year man Ian Thomas as the presumptive starter. Thomas has flashed on his 52 career receptions but his ability to fill Olsen’s shoes remains to be seen.
The rest of the depth chart at WR and TE features low floors and low ceilings, with the possible exception of Brandon Zylstra who closed the year with an 6 catch 96 yard performance that with a couple grabs that showed off a nice catch radius. That said, depth will need to be addressed, preferably on day two of a deep WR draft.
OL
58 sacks, 77 hurries, 35 QB hits. Not the worst numbers in the league but far from good enough. This group was hit hard by injuries and wasn’t helped by the inexperienced Allen and Grier. The right side is set with soon to be 26 year old RT Taylor Moton but the Panthers will be looking for bounce back years from talented G Trai Turner and free agent pickup C Matt Paradis. With Daryl Williams and Greg Van Roten heading to free agency the interior O line should be a focus for Marty Hurney and company.
Carolina spent 2nd and 6th round picks on left tackles in last year’s draft. Sixth rounder Dennis Daley was up and down over 14 games and 9 starts but showed enough that the team should be confident in him as the backup for now. The question is with second rounder Greg Little. Drafted to be the franchise LT, Little was limited to just 4 games after multiple concussions and ankle issues. Carolina is picking 7th and will have likely have the option to draft the top LT on their board if they’re not sold on Little moving forward.
The offensive unit in Carolina needs to add depth to all areas and most importantly answer the question at QB but Samuel, Moore and McCaffrey have shown they’re explosive playmakers with the ability to play both WR and RB. A change in the coaching staff combined with even average play under center and the Panthers offense could be set to soar in the near future.
Defense
By most measures the Panthers defense was a monumental disappointment in 2019. They gave up points on 41.4% of drives, 5th worst in the league. They surrendered touchdowns on 64.1% of redzone drives, 4th worst in the league. Expected points contributed by their pass defense was -63.03 (13th overall) and -62.69 from the run defense (32nd). What looked to be a very solid all around defense with the additions of Gerald McCoy, Tre Boston, Bruce Irvin and first round pick Brian Burns ended the season broken down and looking at a possible 2020 overhaul.
Front Seven
Poor drafting and a flirtation with switching to a 3-4 base defense has left Carolina with some mismatched pieces in the front seven. Injuries claimed Kawaan Short after 2 games and limited Dontair Poe to 11 while also crippling the Panthers’ run defense. Poe (30) and Short (31) are both under contract for next season but Poe’s roster spot seems tenuous at best as the Panthers can save $6.5 million by moving on this year. Along with Poe’s potential departure Gerald McCoy, Mario Addison, Bruce Irvin, Kyle Love and Vernon Butler are all free agents. Of that group, all but Butler are over 30 and despite improved play in 2019 Butler has largely been a bust since being drafted in round one in 2016.
At linebacker the football world was shocked when 28 year old Luke Kuechly announced his retirement, robbing Carolina of their long time defensive leader. That leaves the recently re-signed Shaq Thompson and reserves Jermaine Carter and Andre Smith in the middle. On the outside, nothing but questions. Currently Brian Burns, Christian Miller and Marquis Haynes are the only OLB on the roster but they are all edge rushers with little to no experience as off ball linebackers. The Panthers new coaching staff will have to decide whether to allow them to learn a new position on the fly or have them bulk up and play on the line.
Secondary
The pass defense was better than the run defense but still not exactly a strength. The unit hovered around the middle of the league in most categories, outside of pass rush where they were one of the best in the league (unfortunately a good chunk of their pass rush are preparing for free agency). Eric Reid has been solid if unspectacular and makes for a nice pairing with pending free agent Tre Boston. Rumor has it that the team is attempting to work out long term deals with both Boston and starting corner James Bradberry.
Bradberry has been a reliable starter all 4 years of his career and is someone fans should be happy to retain as long as the price is reasonable. Across from Bradberry is Donte Jackson, a talented and super athletic playmaking corner who has had trouble remaining disciplined over his two years in Charlotte. Much like the front seven, what little depth there is to speak of in the secondary is also scheduled to enter free agency.
The defense is caught in a bit of a no man’s land. Having lost centerpiece Luke Kuechly and with key players in the front seven and secondary heading to free agency there’s no easy answer as to whether they will or should be brought back. 2020 looks like a rebuilding year on the defense and no one should be surprised with a heavy infusion of youth and another season of struggles.
Conclusion
The Panthers are in a place where a few decisions could mean the difference between being a playoff team or drafting Trevor Lawrence in 2021. In part two of our off-season primer we’ll tackle the biggest decisions facing the new look Panthers from the quarterback to free agency and the draft and try to find a way forward for the league’s most consistently inconsistent franchise.