Off-Season Primer: Part Two
The Carolina Panthers enter the off-season an unknown entity. The last nine years represent the best stretch in franchise history. Under Ron Rivera (and interim coach Perry Fewell) the team went 76-67-1 with 4 playoff appearances, 3 (consecutive) division titles and a trip to Super Bowl 50. However, the Panthers remain ringless and hold the dubious distinction of having never posted back to back winning seasons. Enter David Tepper, who in his third year as owner has begun putting his stamp on the organization by adding a sports science division, expanding the front office and removing Rivera in favor of offensive minded Matt Rhule.
The overhaul may not end there as the roster is in a transitional state as well. All Pro LB Luke Kuechly has retired, something longtime TE Greg Olsen has heavily hinted at as well. Several high priced veterans on the wrong side of 30 and key role players hitting free agency have fans wondering if it’s worth it to give this roster another go. The answer to that depends entirely on one man, Cam Newton.
The soon to be 31 year old former MVP has spent the last two years battling injuries to his throwing shoulder and foot. When healthy he’s proven to be an elite talent and one of the most difficult to defend players in the league, however many question whether he will return to form after yet another off-season surgery and rehab. Moving on from arguably the greatest player in franchise history is not merely a difficult decision but one that will inform the rest of the off-season, while setting Carolina on a radically different course over the next five years and will also be a legacy defining moment for both Tepper and Rhule.
The writing on the wall says rebuild, but nothing is certain at this point so today we’ll assume Cam is back and talk about what I think the team should do moving forward. Cam Newton has been the heart and soul of the Carolina Panthers since being selected number one overall in the 2011 draft. He brings leadership, experience and a dual threat style that has made him one of the most productive players in NFL history, Through a player’s first 9 seasons Cam ranks 5th in total yards and 6th in touchdowns. In this scenario we spurn the johnny come latelies of the draft and the journeyman/end of service options in free agency in favor of trying to recapture the magic of the 2015 season with the best supporting cast of Cam’s career, offense oriented coaching and a rebuilt offensive line.
Priorities
LG
Defensive Line
Secondary and offensive line depth
The offensive line may not have been as bad as it looked last season. A change in coaching and a healthy Greg Little may elevate this unit to the point that allows Carolina’s offense to rise to the top of the league. Even if that turns out to be true this group lacks depth, especially with Van Roten and Williams hitting free agency. With Cam back this is by far the biggest issue this off-season.
Free Agency
Cam’s return should mean one thing; going all in on making the playoffs and contending for a super bowl. To that end, free agency will begin with releases of Dontari Poe, Jarius Wright, Mike Davis and Greg Olsen. Take away the rookie pool and that leaves Carolina with just under $41.5 million in cap space. We’ve established that the offensive line is the number one need, so outside of re-signings the biggest free agent move will be to shore up pass protection.
Panthers Free Agents
Vernon Butler- 3 yr $15 million- first year cap number ~ $4.5
James Bradberry - 5 yr 75 million- first year cap number ~ $9
Tre Boston- 4 yr $32 million- first year cap number ~ $5.5
NFL Free Agents
Brandon Sherff - 5 yr $60 million first year cap number ~ $7
Joe Looney/Wes Schweitzer- 2 yr $6 million - first year cap $3
Emmanuel Ogbah - 2 yr $7.5 million first year cap number ~ $3.5
Kamu Grugier-Hill - 2 yr $4 million first year cap number ~ $1.5
These moves would leave the Panthers with roughly $7.5 million for depth signings as well as bringing back restricted and minimum level free agents. Ideally we’d sign Cam to an extension to bring his number down this year but for our purposes we’ll stay with the one year left. Heading into the draft we’ve solidified the offensive line with the Scherff signing and added either Looney or Schweitzer for depth and Paradis insurance while moving on from aging defensive lineman McCoy, Irvin and Addison. This is a gamble but it’s time for Burns, Haynes, Miller, Obada and now Ogbah to show what they’ve got. The offense is still in a better place than the defense but we’re free to take the best player available at #7.
NFL Draft
For this section we’ll be using The Draft Network’s Mock Draft Machine, a fun and useful tool to help you get ready for draft season. Check it out and post your results in the comments.
Derrick Brown DT Auburn- Elite interior prospect who should immediately challenge for the starting role opposite Short.
Curtis Weaver EDGE Boise State- Prototypical size with the strength to play the run and athleticism/technique to get to the QB.
Van Jefferson WR Florida- Good route runner with reliable hands who will allow DJ Moore to work from the slot more often.
Shaquille Quarterman LB Miami- 4 year starter at Miami will give Carolina a much needed boost in run support as well as emotion/leadership.
Myles Bryant CB Washington- Super athlete, Aggressive, undersized. Much needed depth in the Panther secondary
Yasir Durant G/T Missouri- Massive lineman (6’7 330) with great strength and agility who excelled in pass protection. Starting experience at both guard and tackle will make him an invaluable backup.
Geno Stone S Iowa- Technically sound player who uses high football IQ to overcome pedestrian athleticism.
RECAP
Following free agency and the draft we’ve solidified the offensive line and added another option for Cam to get the ball to. Also we’ve taken a mini rebuild approach on defense, moving on from some aging free agents and adding lots of youth and potential, particularly in the front seven. If this is the route Carolina goes I think 2020 will see the scoreboard lit up repeatedly, by the Panthers and their opponents. The sheer number of playmakers on offense led by a healthy Cam should result in Carolina coming out on top more often than not as they challenge for a playoff spot, or possibly the division depending on what happens around the rest of the South.