Is Matt Rhule Being Set Up To Fail?
News came Monday that the Panthers are shopping 5-time Pro Bowl G Trai Turner. This would seem to confirm the various reports that the Panthers are “Open for business” this offseason. This on the heels of the front office making it clear they will not pay impending free agent CB James Bradberry. The tank is on in Charlotte! If you were tired of the will they/won’t they dance regarding Cam’s status you’re in luck- you can now look forward to that speculation spreading to Moton, Samuel and even McCaffrey.
The Panthers roster was at a turning point after the 2019 season, with several important free agents on defense and issues to work out along the offensive line. The team could retain a few key players and use free agency/the draft to add youth to the defense and shore up the trenches while looking to compete with a healthy Cam Newton. The other option? Strip the roster and sell it for parts. Tepper, Hurney and Rhule appear to have chosen option B.
At the combine Rhule said he wanted Cam Newton to be on the roster in September, but for what? If you successfully move Trai Turner and you’re taking calls on the rest of the roster having Cam back is counterproductive. Once Cam is healthy (current timetable looks like June) he should be traded to the highest bidder. If you’re going to burn it down, Cam deserves a chance to start fresh somewhere else.
So what’s the plan without Cam? Cut the roster to the bone and then trade up for Tua? Putting a less mobile QB behind an even worse offensive line doesn’t seem like a recipe for success. Also it will cost you some of the assets you acquired by dumping players. So maybe they’re looking to the future with Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. Sounds great, you can spend this draft rebuilding the offensive line with cheap young talent and be ready to draft your new face of the franchise number one overall in 2021. Except, while it’s likely, it’s not guaranteed that either will come out next year. You also can’t guarantee that you’ll end up with that top pick. Ask Miami how tanking went last year, they ended with the same number of wins as the Panthers. Cincinnati did it though! They were a little less obvious about it but they earned the number one spot and they’re going to get their guy in Joe Burrow.
That brings us to another issue though. Let’s say everything goes to plan and either this or next April you’re turning in a card with the name of your new franchise savior, hugs and high fives all around the war room, puff pieces from everyone in sports media, A+ grade from Kiper etc…what are you really going to get? Drafting a QB in the 1st is more often than not a losing bet. From 2000-2016 45 quarterbacks were taken in the 1st round. On average they spent 6.3 years with the team that drafted them. Were they all busts? Destined for failure on the biggest stage? Of course not, but when you make it your business to lose you can’t snap your fingers and say “Ok i’m ready to win now.”
Is it possible to turn things around quickly? Sure, although that generally doesn’t involve selling off as many good players as you can. Carolina has holes at QB, 2-4 starters on the offensive line (depending on a Trai Turner trade and Greg Little being the guy at LT), DE, DT, LB, CB, FS and depth across the board. You don’t have to fill all those holes to be a competitive team, but do you believe this front office can let go of all the current free agents, get rid of good players that are already under contract and rebuild the roster quickly? If so, ask yourself why they can’t bring back a couple key players, fill far fewer holes and be ready to compete now.
Maybe this is all overblown, maybe Tepper just wants to explore all options and come September Cam will be under Center and Carolina will field the best roster possible, I don’t know. What I do know is Carolina has had incredible players over the years. Julius Peppers, Steve Smith, Cam Newton, Luke Kuechly to name a few, and their careers wasted away toiling under managerial incompetence. Fans have watched and supported knowing every time there was a great year, and there have been a few, mediocrity was close behind. I know that other teams would not look at a 31 year old QB, one of the most dynamic players the league has ever seen, one of the most productive players in league history, one who has carried the franchise on his back for a decade and toss him aside.
The Panthers have not earned the kind of trust they’re asking for. Frankly they have not earned the loyalty fans have already given them. This is different than Cincinnati or Miami, the Panthers have issues but they also have the most important piece, the QB, in place. Forcing an unnecessary rebuild will be unpopular, particularly if Cam thrives elsewhere, and unless it’s done fast and done right i’m not sure how Matt Rhule recovers.