Cam Newton and the Patriots Wide Receiver Problem
Yesterday the New England Patriots finally made the move we’ve all been waiting for. It may be a few months late but they have their new starting QB after signing former Panthers star Cam Newton to a one year, incentive heavy deal worth up to $7.5 million. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter the Patriots were the only team to make an offer to the 2015 league MVP, which allowed New England to upgrade from NFL legend Tom Brady on the cheap. Newton comes with some questions but the potential reward is through the roof for Bill Belichick and the perennial contenders.
Up first are injuries, Newton has missed 16 of his last 32 games due to serious shoulder and foot injuries. It should be noted that despite the popular opinion concerning mobile QBs, Newton did not sustain either injury while running the ball. In week 13 of the 2017 season Newton threw an interception to Trovon Reed of the Chargers. Kelvin Benjamin immediately gave up on the play allowing Reed to race down the sideline, Newton attempted to make the tackle and landed awkwardly on this throwing shoulder. It was aggravated on a Thursday night game in 2018 when an unblocked TJ Watt speared his shoulder mid throw. The foot sprain which ended his 2019 season happened while avoiding a sack in the pocket against the Patriots in a preseason game. Cam has had surgery on both and plenty of time to rehab and if his Instagram workouts are any indication, he’s ready and itching to prove his doubters wrong.
Another frequent question regarding the marriage of Newton and the Patriots is his ability to run their offense and win from the pocket. Simply put this is absurd. Newton is one of the most intelligent QBs in the league and since entering the league has developed into an elite pocket passer. He has the arm strength, ball placement, pocket manipulation and decision making skills to excel in any offense as he showed for years in Carolina operating with below average talent around him. The Panthers also ran the same offensive system as New England, the Erhardt-Perkins. This system relies on simplified play calling, using one or two words to communicate concepts rather than drawn out calls mixing words and numbers detailing every assignment. Cam will have no problem picking up right where Brady left off, even with possibly truncated prep time.
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The real issue with New England’s offense is on the outside, where the pass catching talent has eroded over the years. First the good: Julian Edelman will return and has been the definition of consistency for the Patriots logging 9-10 targets and around 70 yards per game since 2013. As you can see below, Edelman spends most of his time in the slot working the short area of the field and even at 33 remained very effective. He’ll be the most reliable slot receiver that Newton has ever had and should cruise to another 1,000 yard season. After that things get iffy.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2019.htm
2019 first round pick N’Keal Harry missed 9 games before finishing the season with 105 yards and 2 TDs. The Patriots will be counting on a big time jump in production in his second year to make this receiver group palatable. Add in 359 yards and 1 TD from fragile former Cardinal and Panther Damiere Byrd and…the picture doesn’t change much. Belichick passed on WR in this historically deep class but spent two 3rd round picks revamping the TE position. Devin Asiasi of UCLA and Dalton Keene out of Va Tech combined for 881 yards and 9 TDs in their final collegiate season and are both versatile, athletic players to help fill out a group of pass catchers seriously lacking in depth. Unfortunately for New England, free agency doesn’t have many answers. Antonio Brown is available but likely unwelcome at Foxboro, that leaves 29 year old journeyman Taylor Gabriel as the best deep threat. Gabriel seemed poised for a breakout after a 579 yard 6 TD campaign in 2016 but it never came to pass and Gabriel has seen his yards per catch drop off precipitously since.
The answer for New England may lie in Cam Newton’s past. The Panthers signed Matt Rhule favorite Robby Anderson, potentially usurping the role of contract year wideout Curtis Samuel. Samuel has shown explosive athleticism, high level route running, and electric open field ability but through injuries (his own and Newton’s) and poor QB play (Allen+Grier) he has failed to amass production commensurate with his skills. Carolina fielded calls on the 23 year old and has to this point shown no interest in extending his contract, a trade would bring in valuable draft capital to continue their rebuild and allow Samuel the opportunity to flourish in a new situation.
Yesterday’s announcement of punishment stemming from New England’s production crews filming opposing teams’ sidelines during games complicates matters. The Pats were fined $1.1 million and more importantly will forfeit their 2021 3rd round pick. Despite that loss New England needs to move the needle at WR now if they want to be mentioned alongside the Chiefs and Ravens as 2020 title contenders. The addition of Curtis Samuel would allow them to attack every area of the field and give Bill Belichick and Cam Newton the best shot to maximize this fascinating partnership.
Newton will be playing with arguably the best/most talented offensive line of his career and even with no reinforcements Julian Edelman, James White, Sony Michel and a healthy N’Keal Harry should be enough to keep the offense rolling. Much has been made of Newton’s 0-8 finish to his Panther career but the last time Cam was as healthy as he is now, the first half of 2018, Carolina was 6-2 and Newton was in MVP consideration with 1,893 yards 15 TDs 4 INTs and a career high 67.3 completion percentage. Newton is just 31 years old, rested and in incredible shape, and now has a chip on his shoulder that’s familiar to Panther greats.
Cam now has the dubious honor of joining Julius Peppers and Steve Smith as arguably the three greatest Panthers of all time, all of whom were discarded too soon by this consistently incompetent franchise. Smith tormented the Panthers directly in 2014, shredding their secondary for 139 yards and 2 TDs on his way to a 1,000 yard season for the Ravens. Peppers tallied 62.5 sacks over the next 7 years in Chicago and Green Bay before burying the hatchet and finishing his Hall of Fame career back home in Charlotte. In an era where QBs are playing at a high level into their 40s, allowing your franchise’s greatest player to team up with the league’s greatest coach feels like a move that will haunt Tepper and Rhule for years to come.